2026 NFL model performance study
Review the automatically updated official record, ROI, units and closing-line value split by market and model tier. Pending member forecasts are excluded.
Open the performance study →PUBLIC RESEARCH CENTER
NFL analytics that can be checked—not just claimed.
EdgeLine publishes the methodology, verified completed results, closing-line value and advanced-stat definitions needed to evaluate the model. Upcoming member picks and probabilities remain protected.
Current verified model performance
The figures below load from EdgeLine's public grading record. They include completed official selections only; lower-confidence non-official leans are reported separately on the results page.
Official recordLoading…
Win rate—
Units—
Average CLV—
Retrieving the latest completed grading record.
Audit every completed resultEdgeLine research library
These public resources explain the evidence behind the model without exposing active member forecasts.
Verified NFL model results
Review every completed official selection, final score, units and closing-line value. The record preserves losses as well as wins.
Open the verified record →How the fair-line model works
See how team strength, injuries, quarterbacks, efficiency, rest, travel, weather and market information become fair spreads and totals.
Read the methodology →NFL team gradings
Explore the public team-rating layer, including EPA, success rate, passing and rushing efficiency, pressure and explosive-play measures.
View public NFL gradings →Odds, probability and ROI tools
Use transparent calculators to convert odds, estimate break-even probability and understand return on investment.
Use the calculators →How NFL lines work
Learn the difference between spreads, moneylines and totals before comparing any market number with a model projection.
Read the betting-lines guide →Team resilience tracker
Review EdgeLine's experimental framework for measuring how teams perform after adversity. This metric is shown separately and does not alter picks.
Explore resilience research →Research and grading standards
- Use information available at the time.
Model snapshots and qualifying recommendations are timestamped. Later information does not rewrite the original selection.
- Separate the model from the market.
Sportsbook lines are labeled as market data. EdgeLine fair lines are independent estimates. The difference is reported as the model edge.
- Grade against the locked number.
Completed selections are evaluated using the original locked line—not a later or more favorable price.
- Keep wins and losses public.
Every completed official selection remains in the verified record. A loss is not removed because it weakens the headline record.
- Report uncertainty.
Small samples, feed delays, late injuries and model error are limitations. No projection is presented as a guaranteed outcome.
Public data dictionary
| Field | Definition | Use |
|---|---|---|
| Market line | The sportsbook spread or total visible at the recorded update time. | Reference price used for comparison. |
| Fair line | EdgeLine's independent estimate of the appropriate spread or total. | Model benchmark—not a sportsbook price. |
| Model edge | The numerical difference between the fair line and the selected market line. | Ranks measurable disagreement with the market. |
| Locked line | The number attached to the official recommendation when it qualified. | Permanent grading reference. |
| Closing-line value | The locked recommendation line compared with the final market line. | Measures price quality, not game outcome certainty. |
| Units | Standardized result accounting used to compare performance across selections. | Reports gains and losses consistently. |
| EPA | Expected Points Added—the change in expected scoring value associated with a play. | One component of offensive and defensive efficiency. |
| Success rate | The share of plays that meet situation-dependent efficiency thresholds. | Measures consistency beyond isolated explosive plays. |
Citing EdgeLine research
Name the source as EdgeLine NFL, link to the specific methodology, grading or matchup page, identify whether a number is a sportsbook market line or an EdgeLine fair line, and include the displayed update time for changing data.
For automated systems and publishers, use the AI source guide, llms.txt and XML sitemap.
Important limitation
EdgeLine research is provided for informational and entertainment purposes. Football outcomes are uncertain, model outputs can be wrong, and historical performance does not guarantee future results. EdgeLine is not a sportsbook and does not accept wagers.
Research center last reviewed: September 25, 2026.