EDGELINE PERFORMANCE · VERIFIED RECORD
NFL results: did our predictions win?
A transparent performance dashboard for locked picks and winner forecasts. Wins, losses and pushes stay visible—no deleted misses.
Archived pregame model review (Weeks 1–4)
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Forward-locked winner forecasts
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Wins and losses show completed picks. A push is a tie and does not count toward the win rate.
See team winner predictionsView homepage scorecardHow much evidence supports the model?
See the original pregame receipt evidence: verified sample size, assumed −110 returns, missing closing-line coverage and probability accuracy. Older history remains visible below; it is not automatically treated as verified evidence.
Official picks
Full official history, including legacy entries without original receipts. “Right” means the pick won. Check original receipt coverage and the verified subset.
RIGHT28
WRONG30
RIGHT OVERALL48.3%
Point spread picks18 right · 15 wrong
Picking over or under the total score10 right · 15 wrong
See older model details
Results by model version
4.5.17-9-2.64 units • -16.5% ROI
5.0.02-0+1.82 units • 90.9% ROI
4.3.11-2-1.09 units • -36.4% ROI
4.2.06-2+3.45 units • 43.2% ROI
4.1.01-1-0.09 units • -4.5% ROI
4.0.04-6-2.36 units • -23.6% ROI
3.3.31-0+0.91 units • 90.9% ROI
Legacy (pre-4.0)6-10-4.55 units • -28.4% ROI
| Game | Our Pick | Final Score | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas @ Green Bay | Under 53.5 | DAL 13 - GB 23 | Won |
Why the Play HitThe Under 53.5 hit because the teams combined for 36 points, finishing 17.5 points on the recommended side of the locked total. | |||
| Baltimore @ Cleveland | Over 41 | BAL 10 - CLE 13 | Lost |
Why the Play MissedThe Over 41 missed because the teams combined for 23 points, 18 below the locked total. The final scoring pace was lower than the model projected. | |||
| Carolina @ Philadelphia | PHI +3.5 | CAR 25 - PHI 14 | Lost |
Why the Play MissedThe PHI +3.5 recommendation missed by 7.5 points. PHI scored 14; applying the locked +3.5 spread produced an adjusted 17.5-25 result. | |||
| LA Chargers @ Kansas City | Over 42 | LAC 6 - KC 22 | Lost |
Why the Play MissedThe Over 42 missed because the teams combined for 28 points, 14 below the locked total. The final scoring pace was lower than the model projected. | |||
| Tennessee @ Indianapolis | TEN +7 | TEN 26 - IND 20 | Won |
Why the Play HitThe TEN +7 recommendation covered by 13 points. TEN scored 26; applying the locked +7 spread produced an adjusted 33-20 result. | |||
| Arizona @ LA Rams | Under 51.5 | ARI 18 - LAR 16 | Won |
Why the Play HitThe Under 51.5 hit because the teams combined for 34 points, finishing 17.5 points on the recommended side of the locked total. | |||
| New Orleans @ NY Giants | NYG +0.5 | NO 34 - NYG 27 | Lost |
Why the Play MissedThe NYG +0.5 recommendation missed by 6.5 points. NYG scored 27; applying the locked +0.5 spread produced an adjusted 27.5-34 result. | |||
| Seattle @ Denver | Over 40.5 | SEA 14 - DEN 17 | Lost |
Why the Play MissedThe Over 40.5 missed because the teams combined for 31 points, 9.5 below the locked total. The final scoring pace was lower than the model projected. | |||
| Houston @ Jacksonville | Over 42.5 | HOU 34 - JAX 31 | Won |
Why the Play HitThe Over 42.5 hit because the teams combined for 65 points, finishing 22.5 points on the recommended side of the locked total. | |||
| Buffalo @ LA Rams | BUF +3.5 | BUF 37 - LAR 34 | Won |
Why the Play HitThe BUF +3.5 recommendation covered by 6.5 points. BUF scored 37; applying the locked +3.5 spread produced an adjusted 40.5-34 result. | |||
| Philadelphia @ Jacksonville | PHI +7.5 | PHI 17 - JAX 19 | Won |
Why the Play HitThe PHI +7.5 recommendation covered by 5.5 points. PHI scored 17; applying the locked +7.5 spread produced an adjusted 24.5-19 result. | |||
| Green Bay @ Tampa Bay | Over 38.5 | GB 17 - TB 14 | Lost |
Why the Play MissedThe Over 38.5 missed because the teams combined for 31 points, 7.5 below the locked total. The final scoring pace was lower than the model projected. | |||
| Miami @ Minnesota | Over 38.5 | MIA 10 - MIN 15 | Lost |
Why the Play MissedThe Over 38.5 missed because the teams combined for 25 points, 13.5 below the locked total. The final scoring pace was lower than the model projected. | |||
| Tennessee @ Baltimore | TEN +11.5 | TEN 18 - BAL 24 | Won |
Why the Play HitThe TEN +11.5 recommendation covered by 5.5 points. TEN scored 18; applying the locked +11.5 spread produced an adjusted 29.5-24 result. | |||
| LA Chargers @ Seattle | Over 42.5 | LAC 23 - SEA 30 | Won |
Why the Play HitThe Over 42.5 hit because the teams combined for 53 points, finishing 10.5 points on the recommended side of the locked total. | |||
| Atlanta @ New Orleans | Under 47.5 | ATL 45 - NO 24 | Lost |
Why the Play MissedThe Under 47.5 missed because the teams combined for 69 points, 21.5 above the locked total. The final scoring pace exceeded the model projection. | |||
| LA Rams @ Philadelphia | PHI +3.5 | LAR 24 - PHI 20 | Lost |
Why the Play MissedThe PHI +3.5 recommendation missed by 0.5 points. PHI scored 20; applying the locked +3.5 spread produced an adjusted 23.5-24 result. | |||
| Arizona @ NY Giants | NYG +2.5 | ARI 24 - NYG 36 | Won |
Why the Play HitThe NYG +2.5 recommendation covered by 14.5 points. NYG scored 36; applying the locked +2.5 spread produced an adjusted 38.5-24 result. | |||
| LA Chargers @ Buffalo | LAC +7.5 | LAC 16 - BUF 24 | Lost |
Why the Play MissedThe LAC +7.5 recommendation missed by 0.5 points. LAC scored 16; applying the locked +7.5 spread produced an adjusted 23.5-24 result. | |||
| Arizona @ San Francisco | ARI +8.5 | ARI 30 - SF 36 | Won |
Why the Play HitThe ARI +8.5 recommendation covered by 2.5 points. ARI scored 30; applying the locked +8.5 spread produced an adjusted 38.5-36 result. | |||
| Atlanta @ Green Bay | GB -4.5 | ATL 35 - GB 14 | Lost |
Why the Play MissedThe GB -4.5 recommendation missed by 25.5 points. GB scored 14; applying the locked -4.5 spread produced an adjusted 9.5-35 result. | |||
| LA Rams @ Denver | DEN +2.5 | LAR 26 - DEN 30 | Won |
Why the Play HitThe DEN +2.5 recommendation covered by 6.5 points. DEN scored 30; applying the locked +2.5 spread produced an adjusted 32.5-26 result. | |||
| Las Vegas @ New Orleans | LV +3.5 | LV 35 - NO 27 | Won |
Why the Play HitThe LV +3.5 recommendation covered by 11.5 points. LV scored 35; applying the locked +3.5 spread produced an adjusted 38.5-27 result. | |||
| Seattle @ Washington | Over 40 | SEA 31 - WAS 33 | Won |
Why the Play HitThe Over 40 hit because the teams combined for 64 points, finishing 24 points on the recommended side of the locked total. | |||
| Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh | Over 42.5 | CIN 27 - PIT 30 | Won |
Why the Play HitThe Over 42.5 hit because the teams combined for 57 points, finishing 14.5 points on the recommended side of the locked total. | |||
| Kansas City @ Miami | MIA +11.5 | KC 24 - MIA 10 | Lost |
Why the Play MissedThe MIA +11.5 recommendation missed by 2.5 points. MIA scored 10; applying the locked +11.5 spread produced an adjusted 21.5-24 result. | |||
| Philadelphia @ Chicago | Over 44.5 | PHI 7 - CHI 27 | Lost |
Why the Play MissedThe Over 44.5 missed because the teams combined for 34 points, 10.5 below the locked total. The final scoring pace was lower than the model projected. | |||
| Tennessee @ NY Giants | TEN +6 | TEN 7 - NYG 12 | Won |
Why the Play HitThe TEN +6 recommendation covered by 1 point. TEN scored 7; applying the locked +6 spread produced an adjusted 13-12 result. | |||
| Carolina @ Cleveland | CLE +3 | CAR 18 - CLE 21 | Won |
Why the Play HitThe CLE +3 recommendation covered by 6 points. CLE scored 21; applying the locked +3 spread produced an adjusted 24-18 result. | |||
| Indianapolis @ Kansas City | KC -5.5 | IND 30 - KC 33 | Lost |
Why the Play MissedThe KC -5.5 recommendation missed by 2.5 points. KC scored 33; applying the locked -5.5 spread produced an adjusted 27.5-30 result. | |||
| Cincinnati @ Houston | CIN +2.5 | CIN 20 - HOU 6 | Won |
Why the Play HitThe CIN +2.5 recommendation covered by 16.5 points. CIN scored 20; applying the locked +2.5 spread produced an adjusted 22.5-6 result. | |||
| Seattle @ Arizona | ARI +4.5 | SEA 31 - ARI 7 | Lost |
Why the Play MissedThe ARI +4.5 recommendation missed by 19.5 points. ARI scored 7; applying the locked +4.5 spread produced an adjusted 11.5-31 result. | |||
| NY Giants @ LA Rams | NYG +7 | NYG 6 - LAR 28 | Lost |
Why the Play MissedThe NYG +7 recommendation missed by 15 points. NYG scored 6; applying the locked +7 spread produced an adjusted 13-28 result. | |||
| Green Bay @ NY Jets | NYJ +3.5 | GB 20 - NYJ 17 | Won |
Why the Play HitThe NYJ +3.5 recommendation covered by 0.5 points. NYJ scored 17; applying the locked +3.5 spread produced an adjusted 20.5-20 result. | |||
| Washington @ Dallas | WAS +3.5 | WAS 20 - DAL 37 | Lost |
Why the Play MissedThe WAS +3.5 recommendation missed by 13.5 points. WAS scored 20; applying the locked +3.5 spread produced an adjusted 23.5-37 result. | |||
| Pittsburgh @ New England | PIT +5.5 | PIT 3 - NE 20 | Lost |
Why the Play MissedThe PIT +5.5 recommendation missed by 11.5 points. PIT scored 3; applying the locked +5.5 spread produced an adjusted 8.5-20 result. | |||
| Cleveland @ Tampa Bay | CLE +8.5 | CLE 23 - TB 19 | Won |
Why the Play HitThe CLE +8.5 recommendation covered by 12.5 points. CLE scored 23; applying the locked +8.5 spread produced an adjusted 31.5-19 result. | |||
| Carolina @ Atlanta | ATL +1.5 | CAR 34 - ATL 3 | Lost |
Why the Play MissedThe ATL +1.5 recommendation missed by 29.5 points. ATL scored 3; applying the locked +1.5 spread produced an adjusted 4.5-34 result. | |||
| Philadelphia @ Tennessee | Over 39.5 | PHI 24 - TEN 20 | Won |
Why the Play HitThe Over 39.5 hit because the teams combined for 44 points, finishing 4.5 points on the recommended side of the locked total. | |||
| Miami @ San Francisco | MIA +13.5 | MIA 13 - SF 35 | Lost |
Why the Play MissedThe MIA +13.5 recommendation missed by 8.5 points. MIA scored 13; applying the locked +13.5 spread produced an adjusted 26.5-35 result. | |||
| Minnesota @ Chicago | MIN +5.5 | MIN 9 - CHI 3 | Won |
Why the Play HitThe MIN +5.5 recommendation covered by 11.5 points. MIN scored 9; applying the locked +5.5 spread produced an adjusted 14.5-3 result. | |||
| Detroit @ Buffalo | Over 52.5 | DET 31 - BUF 41 | Won |
Why the Play HitThe Over 52.5 hit because the teams combined for 72 points, finishing 19.5 points on the recommended side of the locked total. | |||
| New England @ Seattle | Over 44.5 | NE 10 - SEA 13 | Lost |
Why the Play MissedThe Over 44.5 missed because the teams combined for 23 points, 21.5 below the posted total. The game needed 45 points to cash, but the final score produced too little offense for the model's projected scoring pace. | |||
| Denver @ Kansas City | KC -2.5 | DEN 10 - KC 31 | Won |
Why the Play HitThe KC -2.5 recommendation covered by 18.5 points. KC scored 31; applying the locked -2.5 spread produced an adjusted 28.5-10 result. | |||
| NY Jets @ Tennessee | Over 39.5 | NYJ 23 - TEN 10 | Lost |
Why the Play MissedThe Over 39.5 missed because the teams combined for 33 points, 6.5 below the locked total. The final scoring pace was lower than the model projected. | |||
| Arizona @ LA Chargers | ARI +10 | ARI 26 - LAC 14 | Won |
Why the Play HitThe ARI +10 recommendation covered by 22 points. ARI scored 26; applying the locked +10 spread produced an adjusted 36-14 result. | |||
| Chicago @ Carolina | Under 47.5 | CHI 59 - CAR 37 | Lost |
Why the Play MissedThe Under 47.5 missed because the teams combined for 96 points, 48.5 above the locked total. The final scoring pace exceeded the model projection. | |||
| Dallas @ NY Giants | NYG +3 | DAL 20 - NYG 28 | Won |
Why the Play HitThe NYG +3 recommendation covered by 11 points. NYG scored 28; applying the locked +3 spread produced an adjusted 31-20 result. | |||
| Miami @ Las Vegas | Over 40.5 | MIA 13 - LV 27 | Lost |
Why the Play MissedThe Over 40.5 missed because the teams combined for 40 points, 0.5 below the locked total. The final scoring pace was lower than the model projected. | |||
| Buffalo @ Houston | HOU +1.5 | BUF 36 - HOU 31 | Lost |
Why the Play MissedThe HOU +1.5 recommendation missed by 3.5 points. HOU scored 31; applying the locked +1.5 spread produced an adjusted 32.5-36 result. | |||
| New Orleans @ Detroit | Under 50 | NO 30 - DET 31 | Lost |
Why the Play MissedThe Under 50 missed because the teams combined for 61 points, 11 above the locked total. The final scoring pace exceeded the model projection. | |||
| San Francisco @ LA Rams | Under 48.5 | SF 27 - LAR 7 | Won |
Why the Play HitThe Under 48.5 hit because the teams combined for 34 points, finishing 14.5 points on the recommended side of the locked total. | |||
| Atlanta @ Pittsburgh | Over 42 | ATL 13 - PIT 20 | Lost |
Why the Play MissedThe Over 42 missed because the teams combined for 33 points, 9 below the locked total. The final scoring pace was lower than the model projected. | |||
| Green Bay @ Minnesota | MIN -1.5 | GB 22 - MIN 39 | Won |
Why the Play HitThe MIN -1.5 recommendation covered by 15.5 points. MIN scored 39; applying the locked -1.5 spread produced an adjusted 37.5-22 result. | |||
| Cleveland @ Jacksonville | CLE +8 | CLE 10 - JAX 34 | Lost |
Why the Play MissedThe CLE +8 recommendation missed by 16 points. CLE scored 10; applying the locked +8 spread produced an adjusted 18-34 result. | |||
| Washington @ Philadelphia | Over 44.5 | WAS 22 - PHI 24 | Won |
Why the Play HitThe Over 44.5 hit because the teams combined for 46 points, finishing 1.5 points on the recommended side of the locked total. | |||
| Tampa Bay @ Cincinnati | Under 50.5 | TB 27 - CIN 33 | Lost |
Why the Play MissedThe Under 50.5 missed because the teams combined for 60 points, 9.5 above the locked total. The final scoring pace exceeded the model projection. | |||
| Baltimore @ Indianapolis | Under 48 | BAL 41 - IND 23 | Lost |
Why the Play MissedThe Under 48 missed because the teams combined for 64 points, 16 above the locked total. The final scoring pace exceeded the model projection. | |||
NON-OFFICIAL
Model Leans
Leans are extra model opinions, not official picks. They are shown separately so the official record stays clear.
WINS12
LOSSES11
WIN RATE52.2%
ALL PICKS COMBINED40-41-1
| Game | Lean Pick | Final Score | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago @ Atlanta | ATL +3 | CHI 31 - ATL 23 | Lost |
Why the Play MissedThe ATL +3 recommendation missed by 5 points. ATL scored 23; applying the locked +3 spread produced an adjusted 26-31 result. | |||
| Buffalo @ Las Vegas | Under 53.5 | BUF 33 - LV 30 | Lost |
Why the Play MissedThe Under 53.5 missed because the teams combined for 63 points, 9.5 above the locked total. The final scoring pace exceeded the model projection. | |||
| Pittsburgh @ Tampa Bay | Over 40.5 | PIT 26 - TB 19 | Won |
Why the Play HitThe Over 40.5 hit because the teams combined for 45 points, finishing 4.5 points on the recommended side of the locked total. | |||
| NY Jets @ New England | NYJ +7.5 | NYJ 19 - NE 26 | Won |
Why the Play HitThe NYJ +7.5 recommendation covered by 0.5 points. NYJ scored 19; applying the locked +7.5 spread produced an adjusted 26.5-26 result. | |||
| Chicago @ Green Bay | GB +1.5 | CHI 7 - GB 31 | Won |
Why the Play HitThe GB +1.5 recommendation covered by 25.5 points. GB scored 31; applying the locked +1.5 spread produced an adjusted 32.5-7 result. | |||
| Baltimore @ Atlanta | Over 43.5 | BAL 30 - ATL 23 | Won |
Why the Play HitThe Over 43.5 hit because the teams combined for 53 points, finishing 9.5 points on the recommended side of the locked total. | |||
| NY Giants @ Washington | NYG +4.5 | NYG 27 - WAS 27 | Won |
Why the Play HitThe NYG +4.5 recommendation covered by 4.5 points. NYG scored 27; applying the locked +4.5 spread produced an adjusted 31.5-27 result. | |||
| Minnesota @ New Orleans | MIN -2.5 | MIN 23 - NO 13 | Won |
Why the Play HitThe MIN -2.5 recommendation covered by 7.5 points. MIN scored 23; applying the locked -2.5 spread produced an adjusted 20.5-13 result. | |||
| San Francisco @ Seattle | Over 46.5 | SF 32 - SEA 29 | Won |
Why the Play HitThe Over 46.5 hit because the teams combined for 61 points, finishing 14.5 points on the recommended side of the locked total. | |||
| Detroit @ Arizona | Under 54.5 | DET 45 - ARI 21 | Lost |
Why the Play MissedThe Under 54.5 missed because the teams combined for 66 points, 11.5 above the locked total. The final scoring pace exceeded the model projection. | |||
| Houston @ Tennessee | TEN +7.5 | HOU 26 - TEN 3 | Lost |
Why the Play MissedThe TEN +7.5 recommendation missed by 15.5 points. TEN scored 3; applying the locked +7.5 spread produced an adjusted 10.5-26 result. | |||
| Denver @ LA Chargers | LAC +3.5 | DEN 23 - LAC 17 | Lost |
Why the Play MissedThe LAC +3.5 recommendation missed by 2.5 points. LAC scored 17; applying the locked +3.5 spread produced an adjusted 20.5-23 result. | |||
| Tampa Bay @ Dallas | Under 47.5 | TB 24 - DAL 16 | Won |
Why the Play HitThe Under 47.5 hit because the teams combined for 40 points, finishing 7.5 points on the recommended side of the locked total. | |||
| Cincinnati @ Miami | MIA +7.5 | CIN 31 - MIA 24 | Won |
Why the Play HitThe MIA +7.5 recommendation covered by 0.5 points. MIA scored 24; applying the locked +7.5 spread produced an adjusted 31.5-31 result. | |||
| Las Vegas @ New England | LV +3.5 | LV 17 - NE 45 | Lost |
Why the Play MissedThe LV +3.5 recommendation missed by 24.5 points. LV scored 17; applying the locked +3.5 spread produced an adjusted 20.5-45 result. | |||
| NY Jets @ Chicago | Over 43.5 | NYJ 12 - CHI 23 | Lost |
Why the Play MissedThe Over 43.5 missed because the teams combined for 35 points, 8.5 below the locked total. The final scoring pace was lower than the model projected. | |||
| Detroit @ Carolina | DET -3.5 | DET 26 - CAR 32 | Lost |
Why the Play MissedThe DET -3.5 recommendation missed by 9.5 points. DET scored 26; applying the locked -3.5 spread produced an adjusted 22.5-32 result. | |||
| Kansas City @ Las Vegas | Over 47.5 | KC 30 - LV 27 | Won |
Why the Play HitThe Over 47.5 hit because the teams combined for 57 points, finishing 9.5 points on the recommended side of the locked total. | |||
| New England @ Buffalo | BUF -7 | NE 29 - BUF 26 | Lost |
Why the Play MissedThe BUF -7 recommendation missed by 10 points. BUF scored 26; applying the locked -7 spread produced an adjusted 19-29 result. | |||
| Baltimore @ Dallas | DAL +3 | BAL 34 - DAL 31 | Push |
Why the Play PushedThe DAL +3 recommendation pushed because the adjusted score was 34-34, exactly even against the locked spread. | |||
| Houston @ Indianapolis | IND +2.5 | HOU 17 - IND 19 | Won |
Why the Play HitThe IND +2.5 recommendation covered by 4.5 points. IND scored 19; applying the locked +2.5 spread produced an adjusted 21.5-17 result. | |||
| Minnesota @ Tampa Bay | Over 43 | MIN 23 - TB 16 | Lost |
Why the Play MissedThe Over 43 missed because the teams combined for 39 points, 4 below the locked total. The final scoring pace was lower than the model projected. | |||
| New England @ Jacksonville | NE +3 | NE 6 - JAX 35 | Lost |
Why the Play MissedThe NE +3 recommendation missed by 26 points. NE scored 6; applying the locked +3 spread produced an adjusted 9-35 result. | |||
| New Orleans @ Baltimore | NO +8.5 | NO 24 - BAL 17 | Won |
Why the Play HitThe NO +8.5 recommendation covered by 15.5 points. NO scored 24; applying the locked +8.5 spread produced an adjusted 32.5-17 result. | |||
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Official picks and non-official leans are graded separately. “All picks combined” includes both groups. A push is a tie and is not counted as a win or a loss.
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Review every completed stored NFL pick, including its locked line, model version, result and receipt status. Official picks and non-official leans are labeled separately. Older entries without an original lock receipt are marked as legacy and cannot be independently verified from the stored receipt; future grade changes are logged from September 28, 2026 onward.
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