UFC ensemble walk-forward validation
Strict walk-forward evaluation of forecasts saved before fight start. No completed-fight information is used to recreate a forecast.
Current engine ufc-ensemble-3.1: 12 completed forecasts across 1 cards. Older versions are evaluated separately below.
Readiness: INSUFFICIENT_SAMPLE
Collect at least 30 completed, strictly pre-fight UFC ufc-ensemble-3.1 forecasts across multiple cards before fitting new weights or calibration.
Model 3.x family scoring
| Forecast | N | Accuracy | Brier | Log loss | Avg confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ensemble before market calibration | 22 | 59.1% | 0.29 | 0.785 | 59.2% |
| Final probability after market calibration | 22 | 59.1% | 0.29 | 0.786 | 59.2% |
UFC and Contender Series
Each group is evaluated separately. Contender Series and unknown events do not count toward current-engine readiness.
| Group | N | Accuracy | Brier | Log loss | Avg confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CONTENDER_SERIES | 10 | 40% | 0.261 | 0.715 | 53.9% |
| UFC | 22 | 59.1% | 0.29 | 0.786 | 59.2% |
Results by card
| Card / date | N | Accuracy | Brier | Log loss | Avg confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dana White's Contender Series 96 / 2026-10-13T23:00:00.000Z / CONTENDER_SERIES | 5 | 60% | 0.259 | 0.711 | 54.9% |
| UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs Malott / 2026-10-17T21:00:00.000Z / UFC | 12 | 58.3% | 0.309 | 0.833 | 61.7% |
| Dana White's Contender Series 95 / 2026-10-06T23:00:00.000Z / CONTENDER_SERIES | 5 | 20% | 0.263 | 0.72 | 52.8% |
| UFC Fight Night: Allen vs Duncan / 2026-10-10T21:00:00.000Z / UFC | 10 | 60% | 0.267 | 0.729 | 56.1% |
All archived model versions
Version labels come from the saved forecast engine when available. Historical receipts are preserved.
| Version | N | Accuracy | Brier | Log loss | Avg confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ufc-ensemble-3.0 | 15 | 60% | 0.264 | 0.723 | 55.7% |
| ufc-ensemble-3.1 | 12 | 58.3% | 0.309 | 0.833 | 61.7% |
| ufc-2.2.0 | 5 | 20% | 0.263 | 0.72 | 52.8% |
Model 3.x family calibration
| Confidence band | N | Average forecast | Actual win rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50-54% | 10 | 51.8% | 90% |
| 55-59% | 6 | 57.2% | 33.3% |
| 60-64% | 3 | 62.3% | 33.3% |
| 65-69% | 0 | — | — |
| 70-79% | 0 | — | — |
| 80-100% | 3 | 84.5% | 33.3% |
Calibration shrinkage, when available, is diagnostic only and is never auto-applied to live picks from the same evaluation sample.
Updated 2026-10-18T19:54:03.689Z.