2026 NFL • WEEK 2

Week 2 model analysis

A permanent, citation-ready snapshot of EdgeLine fair lines compared with the sportsbook market. Model outputs are informational, not guarantees.

32matchups

18Play / Strong

Sep 15, 2026, 8:58 AMupdated CT

Weekly model board

Atlanta @ Pittsburgh

Play

Over 41

Market spread: -6
Fair spread: -4
Market total: +41
Fair total: +44.5
Model edge: +3.5 pts
Line value: -0.5 pts

Snapshot —

Buffalo @ Houston

Play

Over 44.5

Market spread: +1.5
Fair spread: +0.5
Market total: +44.5
Fair total: +50.5
Model edge: +6 pts
Line value: 0 pts

Snapshot —

Chicago @ Carolina

Lean

Under 47

Market spread: +3
Fair spread: +2
Market total: +47
Fair total: +45
Model edge: +2 pts
Line value: -1.5 pts

Snapshot —

Dallas @ NY Giants

Play

NYG +3

Market spread: +3
Fair spread: 0
Market total: +47.5
Fair total: +45.5
Model edge: +3 pts
Line value: -0.5 pts

Snapshot —

Miami @ Las Vegas

Play

MIA +3

Market spread: -3
Fair spread: -0.5
Market total: +40.5
Fair total: +42.5
Model edge: +2.5 pts
Line value: 0 pts

Snapshot —

New Orleans @ Detroit

Lean

DET -7

Market spread: -7
Fair spread: -9
Market total: +49.5
Fair total: +48
Model edge: +2 pts
Line value: 0 pts

Snapshot —

Jacksonville @ Denver

Watch

Over 44.5

Market spread: -2.5
Fair spread: -3.5
Market total: +44.5
Fair total: +46
Model edge: +1.5 pts
Line value: 0 pts

Snapshot —

Detroit @ Buffalo

Play

DET +4.5

Market spread: -4.5
Fair spread: -2
Market total: +53.5
Fair total: +54.5
Model edge: +2.5 pts
Line value: -1.5 pts

Snapshot —

Philadelphia @ Tennessee

Play

Over 39.5

Market spread: +7
Fair spread: +3.5
Market total: +39.5
Fair total: +45
Model edge: +5.5 pts
Line value: -2.5 pts

Snapshot —

Seattle @ Arizona

Lean

Over 41.5

Market spread: +4.5
Fair spread: +2.5
Market total: +41.5
Fair total: +44.5
Model edge: +3 pts
Line value: -2.5 pts

Snapshot —

Indianapolis @ Kansas City

Pass

Over 47.5

Market spread: -6.5
Fair spread: -7
Market total: +47.5
Fair total: +48.5
Model edge: +1 pts
Line value: 0 pts

Snapshot —

Minnesota @ Chicago

Play

MIN +5.5

Market spread: -5.5
Fair spread: -1.5
Market total: +49.5
Fair total: +49
Model edge: +4 pts
Line value: -2 pts

Snapshot —

Pittsburgh @ New England

Play

PIT +5.5

Market spread: -5.5
Fair spread: -1.5
Market total: +42
Fair total: +44.5
Model edge: +4 pts
Line value: -0.5 pts

Snapshot —

Washington @ Dallas

Lean

WAS +3.5

Market spread: -3.5
Fair spread: -1.5
Market total: +50.5
Fair total: +48.5
Model edge: +2 pts
Line value: +1 pts

Snapshot —

Cincinnati @ Houston

Watch

Over 46.5

Market spread: -3
Fair spread: -2.5
Market total: +46.5
Fair total: +48.5
Model edge: +2 pts
Line value: 0 pts

Snapshot —

Baltimore @ Indianapolis

Lean

Over 48

Market spread: +3.5
Fair spread: +4
Market total: +48
Fair total: +49.5
Model edge: +1.5 pts
Line value: -1.5 pts

Snapshot —

Cleveland @ Jacksonville

Play

CLE +8.5

Market spread: -8.5
Fair spread: -5
Market total: +40
Fair total: +41
Model edge: +3.5 pts
Line value: -1 pts

Snapshot —

Denver @ Kansas City

Play

Over 42.5

Market spread: -2
Fair spread: -4
Market total: +42.5
Fair total: +48
Model edge: +5.5 pts
Line value: -0.5 pts

Snapshot —

Green Bay @ NY Jets

Lean

NYJ +3.5

Market spread: +3.5
Fair spread: +1.5
Market total: +44.5
Fair total: +45.5
Model edge: +2 pts
Line value: +2 pts

Snapshot —

Tampa Bay @ Cincinnati

Lean

Under 50.5

Market spread: -3.5
Fair spread: -2.5
Market total: +50.5
Fair total: +49
Model edge: +1.5 pts
Line value: +1 pts

Snapshot —

Cleveland @ Tampa Bay

Play

CLE +8.5

Market spread: -8.5
Fair spread: -6
Market total: +40.5
Fair total: +42
Model edge: +2.5 pts
Line value: -2 pts

Snapshot —

Arizona @ LA Chargers

Lean

ARI +9.5

Market spread: -9.5
Fair spread: -8
Market total: +47
Fair total: +47
Model edge: +1.5 pts
Line value: +1 pts

Snapshot —

San Francisco @ LA Rams

Play

Under 48.5

Market spread: 0
Fair spread: 0
Market total: 0
Fair total: 0
Model edge: +2 pts
Line value: 0 pts

Snapshot —

New Orleans @ Baltimore

Pass

BAL -8.5

Market spread: -8.5
Fair spread: -9
Market total: +47
Fair total: +47.5
Model edge: +0.5 pts
Line value: +0.5 pts

Snapshot —

Carolina @ Atlanta

Play

ATL +1

Market spread: +1
Fair spread: -2.5
Market total: +44
Fair total: +42.5
Model edge: +3.5 pts
Line value: -2.5 pts

Snapshot —

Miami @ San Francisco

Play

MIA +13.5

Market spread: -13.5
Fair spread: -6
Market total: +45.5
Fair total: +46
Model edge: +7.5 pts
Line value: -1 pts

Snapshot —

NY Giants @ LA Rams

Watch

NYG +7

Market spread: -7
Fair spread: -6
Market total: +48.5
Fair total: +48.5
Model edge: +1 pts
Line value: +1.5 pts

Snapshot —

Las Vegas @ LA Chargers

Watch

Over 43.5

Market spread: -7
Fair spread: -7.5
Market total: +43.5
Fair total: +45.5
Model edge: +2 pts
Line value: +1 pts

Snapshot —

Green Bay @ Minnesota

Play

Over 45.5

Market spread: -2.5
Fair spread: -2
Market total: +45.5
Fair total: +49
Model edge: +3.5 pts
Line value: 0 pts

Snapshot —

New England @ Seattle

Play

Over 44.5

Market spread: -3.5
Fair spread: -3.5
Market total: +44.5
Fair total: +48
Model edge: +3.5 pts
Line value: -0.5 pts

Snapshot —

NY Jets @ Tennessee

Play

Over 38.5

Market spread: -1.5
Fair spread: -2
Market total: +38.5
Fair total: +42
Model edge: +3.5 pts
Line value: 0 pts

Snapshot —

Washington @ Philadelphia

Play

Over 43.5

Market spread: -6
Fair spread: -5
Market total: +43.5
Fair total: +49.5
Model edge: +6 pts
Line value: -3.5 pts

Snapshot —

How to cite this report

Attribute projections to EdgeLine NFL, link to this page, and include the displayed update date. The market line and EdgeLine fair line are separate values.

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