EdgeLine NFL
PICK RECEIPT • ✕ EDGELINE PICK LOST

Indianapolis @ Kansas City Result & Pick Recap

This game is complete. This historical recap preserves EdgeLine's pregame recommendation, locked line, final score and graded result. It is not a current prediction.

OFFICIAL RECOMMENDATIONEdgeLine’s best available spread is KC -5.5 because our fair-line model sees approximately a 2.5-point advantage versus the current sportsbook spread. However, the market has moved 1.0 point away from EdgeLine's position, so confidence is reduced. The edge is large enough to qualify as a Play, but not a Strong play.

Play means the model sees a meaningful betting edge, but the setup does not currently satisfy EdgeLine’s stricter Strong criteria.

Official PlayKC -5.5
Bet TypeSPREAD
Model Edge+2.5
Cover probability58.4%Clear estimated advantage
Line Value-1
Market SpreadNot recorded
Fair Spread-8
Market Total—
Fair Total—
Travel – Spread0
Travel – Total0
Surface – Spread-0.1
Surface – Total-0.5
INPUTS & TIMINGWhat this analysis used

Sportsbook market line, EdgeLine team ratings, injury and quarterback context, home field and matchup adjustments. The figures above are model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes.

Latest model snapshot: Sep 20, 7:36 PM EDT. Official pick locked: Sep 20, 7:36 PM EDT. Model version: 4.1.0.

Read the methodology · Download completed pick history

KEY PICK FACTORS

• Fair-line value: EdgeLine identifies a 2.5-point advantage versus the sportsbook line.

• Home/away: KC is home and IND is away; the model includes a 1.7-point home-field adjustment.

• Injuries: No material injury adjustment is currently applied; check the live report for player-level availability.

• Playing surface: Recent grass/turf performance splits adjust this spread by -0.1 points.

Explore NFL Analytics · See Model Methodology

PLAYING SURFACENatural grass · IND 5 games · KC 13 games

Sample-shrunk nflfastR EPA splits produce capped adjustments of -0.1 to the spread and -0.5 to the total. Surface is a supporting input, never a standalone pick signal.

Referee crew analytics

Confirmed assignment pending; no referee adjustment applied.

Crew penalty profiles and test results. Capped prediction input from Week 8 of 2026; an accuracy gain has not been established.

TEAM HUBSFollow both teams beyond this matchup

Indianapolis analytics · Kansas City analytics

Verified Performance

LINE LOCKED
Locked PickKC -5.5
Locked Line-5.5
Game WinnerKC
EdgeLine Result✕ EDGELINE PICK LOST
Closing Line-5.5
CLVPK
Units-1.000

Locked automatically 9/20/2026, 6:36:21 PM CT. Final score: IND 30 - KC 33.

Shareable Pick Receipt

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Verified Performance History

PUBLIC RECORD
MatchupPickResultUnitsCLV
Dallas @ PhiladelphiaPHI +4.5LOSS-1.000PK
Dallas @ Green BayUnder 53.5WIN+0.909-1
Baltimore @ ClevelandOver 41LOSS-1.000-1.5
Carolina @ PhiladelphiaPHI +3.5LOSS-1.000+0.5
LA Chargers @ Kansas CityOver 42LOSS-1.000-0.5
New Orleans @ NY GiantsNYG +0.5LOSS-1.000-1
Seattle @ DenverOver 40.5LOSS-1.000PK
Houston @ JacksonvilleOver 42.5WIN+0.909PK
CURRENT NFL MATCHUPSThis game is complete — continue with the current slate

Cleveland @ Pittsburgh prediction · Baltimore @ Buffalo prediction · Atlanta @ Tampa Bay prediction · Las Vegas @ NY Jets prediction · Indianapolis @ Jacksonville prediction · Tennessee @ Cincinnati prediction

View all current NFL picks and predictions

Pick receipt published: 9/20/2026, 11:46:29 PM CT

RELATED PUBLIC RESEARCHAudit the method behind this matchup

NFL model methodology · Free team gradings · Model performance study · Completed results

Simulate this game · FreeView Live BoardVerified Results
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