EdgeLine NFL
PICK RECEIPT • ✕ EDGELINE PICK LOST

Miami @ San Francisco Result & Pick Recap

This game is complete. This historical recap preserves EdgeLine's pregame recommendation, locked line, final score and graded result. It is not a current prediction.

OFFICIAL RECOMMENDATIONEdgeLine’s best available spread is MIA +13.5 because our fair-line model sees approximately a 7.5-point advantage versus the current sportsbook spread. However, the market has moved 1.0 point away from EdgeLine's position, so confidence is reduced. The model edge is large, but adverse market movement keeps the recommendation at Play rather than Strong.

Play means the model sees a meaningful betting edge, but the setup does not currently satisfy EdgeLine’s stricter Strong criteria.

Official PlayMIA +13.5
Bet TypeSPREAD
Model Edge+7.5
Cover probability73.7%Strong estimated advantage
Line Value-1
Market SpreadNot recorded
Fair Spread-6
Market Total—
Fair Total—
Travel – Spread0
Travel – Total0
Surface – SpreadNot recorded
Surface – TotalNot recorded
INPUTS & TIMINGWhat this analysis used

Sportsbook market line, EdgeLine team ratings, injury and quarterback context, home field and matchup adjustments. The figures above are model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes.

Latest model snapshot: Sep 15, 8:12 AM EDT. Official pick locked: Sep 15, 8:12 AM EDT. Model version: 4.0.0.

Read the methodology · Download completed pick history

KEY PICK FACTORS

• Fair-line value: EdgeLine identifies a 7.5-point advantage versus the sportsbook line.

• Home/away: SF is home and MIA is away; the model includes a 1.7-point home-field adjustment.

• Injuries: No material injury adjustment is currently applied; check the live report for player-level availability.

Explore NFL Analytics · See Model Methodology

Referee crew analytics

Confirmed assignment pending; no referee adjustment applied.

Crew penalty profiles and test results. Capped prediction input from Week 8 of 2026; an accuracy gain has not been established.

TEAM HUBSFollow both teams beyond this matchup

Miami analytics · San Francisco analytics

Verified Performance

LINE LOCKED
Locked PickMIA +13.5
Locked Line+13.5
Game WinnerSF
EdgeLine Result✕ EDGELINE PICK LOST
Closing Line+13
CLV+0.5
Units-1.000

Locked automatically 9/15/2026, 7:12:26 AM CT. Final score: MIA 13 - SF 35.

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Verified Performance History

PUBLIC RECORD
MatchupPickResultUnitsCLV
Dallas @ PhiladelphiaPHI +4.5LOSS-1.000PK
Dallas @ Green BayUnder 53.5WIN+0.909-1
Baltimore @ ClevelandOver 41LOSS-1.000-1.5
Carolina @ PhiladelphiaPHI +3.5LOSS-1.000+0.5
LA Chargers @ Kansas CityOver 42LOSS-1.000-0.5
Tennessee @ IndianapolisTEN +7WIN+0.909+0.5
Arizona @ LA RamsUnder 51.5WIN+0.909PK
New Orleans @ NY GiantsNYG +0.5LOSS-1.000-1
CURRENT NFL MATCHUPSThis game is complete — continue with the current slate

Baltimore @ Buffalo prediction · Minnesota @ Detroit prediction · Arizona @ Dallas prediction · Atlanta @ Tampa Bay prediction · Las Vegas @ NY Jets prediction · Indianapolis @ Jacksonville prediction

View all current NFL picks and predictions

Pick receipt published: 9/20/2026, 6:23:35 PM CT

RELATED PUBLIC RESEARCHAudit the method behind this matchup

NFL model methodology · Free team gradings · Model performance study · Completed results

Simulate this game · FreeView Live BoardVerified Results
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For informational and entertainment purposes only. No wager is guaranteed.