EdgeLine NFL
PICK RECEIPT • ✓ EDGELINE PICK WON

Cincinnati @ Houston Result & Pick Recap

This game is complete. This historical recap preserves EdgeLine's pregame recommendation, locked line, final score and graded result. It is not a current prediction.

OFFICIAL RECOMMENDATIONEdgeLine’s best available spread is CIN +2.5 because our fair-line model sees approximately a 3.5-point advantage versus the current sportsbook spread. The market has not provided a meaningful confirming move yet. The edge is large enough to qualify as a Play, but not a Strong play.

Play means the model sees a meaningful betting edge, but the setup does not currently satisfy EdgeLine’s stricter Strong criteria.

Official PlayCIN +2.5
Bet TypeSPREAD
Model Edge+3.5
Cover probability61.8%Clear estimated advantage
Line Value0
Market SpreadNot recorded
Fair Spread+1
Market Total—
Fair Total—
Travel – Spread0
Travel – Total0
Surface – Spread0
Surface – Total+1
INPUTS & TIMINGWhat this analysis used

Sportsbook market line, EdgeLine team ratings, injury and quarterback context, home field and matchup adjustments. The figures above are model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes.

Latest model snapshot: Sep 20, 5:36 PM EDT. Official pick locked: Sep 20, 5:36 PM EDT. Model version: 4.1.0.

Read the methodology · Download completed pick history

KEY PICK FACTORS

• Fair-line value: EdgeLine identifies a 3.5-point advantage versus the sportsbook line.

• Home/away: HOU is home and CIN is away; the model includes a 1.7-point home-field adjustment.

• Injuries: No material injury adjustment is currently applied; check the live report for player-level availability.

Explore NFL Analytics · See Model Methodology

PLAYING SURFACEArtificial turf · CIN 11 games · HOU 12 games

Sample-shrunk nflfastR EPA splits produce capped adjustments of 0 to the spread and +1 to the total. Surface is a supporting input, never a standalone pick signal.

Referee crew analytics

Confirmed assignment pending; no referee adjustment applied.

Crew penalty profiles and test results. Capped prediction input from Week 8 of 2026; an accuracy gain has not been established.

TEAM HUBSFollow both teams beyond this matchup

Cincinnati analytics · Houston analytics

TRAVEL & REST ANALYSISRoad travel: CIN 898 mi / HOU 6 mi to HOU home venue; approximately 1 time zone from the away-team base. Model adjustment: spread 0.0 pts, total 0.0 pts.

Travel adjustments are capped inputs to the fair line. They do not replace team efficiency, injuries, player tendencies or market information.

Verified Performance

LINE LOCKED
Locked PickCIN +2.5
Locked Line+2.5
Game WinnerCIN
EdgeLine Result✓ EDGELINE PICK WON
Closing Line+2.5
CLVPK
Units+0.909

Locked automatically 9/20/2026, 4:36:55 PM CT. Final score: CIN 20 - HOU 6.

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Verified Performance History

PUBLIC RECORD
MatchupPickResultUnitsCLV
Dallas @ PhiladelphiaPHI +4.5LOSS-1.000PK
Dallas @ Green BayUnder 53.5WIN+0.909-1
Baltimore @ ClevelandOver 41LOSS-1.000-1.5
Carolina @ PhiladelphiaPHI +3.5LOSS-1.000+0.5
LA Chargers @ Kansas CityOver 42LOSS-1.000-0.5
Houston @ JacksonvilleOver 42.5WIN+0.909PK
Arizona @ LA RamsUnder 51.5WIN+0.909PK
Tennessee @ IndianapolisTEN +7WIN+0.909+0.5
CURRENT NFL MATCHUPSThis game is complete — continue with the current slate

Cleveland @ Pittsburgh prediction · Tennessee @ Cincinnati prediction · Baltimore @ Buffalo prediction · Minnesota @ Detroit prediction · Arizona @ Dallas prediction · Atlanta @ Tampa Bay prediction

View all current NFL picks and predictions

Pick receipt published: 9/20/2026, 4:53:24 PM CT

RELATED PUBLIC RESEARCHAudit the method behind this matchup

NFL model methodology · Free team gradings · Model performance study · Completed results

Simulate this game · FreeView Live BoardVerified Results
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