EdgeLine NFL
PICK RECEIPT • ✓ EDGELINE PICK WON

Tennessee @ Baltimore Result & Pick Recap

This game is complete. This historical recap preserves EdgeLine's pregame recommendation, locked line, final score and graded result. It is not a current prediction.

OFFICIAL RECOMMENDATIONEdgeLine’s best available spread is TEN +11.5 because our fair-line model sees approximately a 3.5-point advantage versus the current sportsbook spread. However, the market has moved 11.5 points away from EdgeLine's position, so confidence is reduced. The edge is large enough to qualify as a Play, but not a Strong play.

Play means the model sees a meaningful betting edge, but the setup does not currently satisfy EdgeLine’s stricter Strong criteria.

Official PlayTEN +11.5
Bet TypeSPREAD
Model Edge+3.5
Cover probability61.8%Clear estimated advantage
Line Value-11.5
Market Spread-11.5
Fair Spread+8
Market Total42.5
Fair Total46
Travel – Spread0
Travel – Total0
Surface – Spread-0.2
Surface – Total+0.4
INPUTS & TIMINGWhat this analysis used

Sportsbook market line, EdgeLine team ratings, injury and quarterback context, home field and matchup adjustments. The figures above are model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes.

Latest model snapshot: Oct 4, 12:58 PM EDT. Official pick locked: Oct 4, 11:02 AM EDT. Model version: 4.5.1.

Read the methodology · Download completed pick history

KEY PICK FACTORS

• Fair-line value: EdgeLine identifies a 3.5-point advantage versus the sportsbook line.

• Home/away: BAL is home and TEN is away; the model includes a 1.7-point home-field adjustment.

• Injuries: Current availability, including quarterback impact, creates a 0.1-point adjustment toward BAL.

• Playing surface: Recent grass/turf performance splits adjust this spread by -0.2 points.

Explore NFL Analytics · See Model Methodology

PLAYING SURFACENatural grass · TEN 14 games · BAL 13 games

Sample-shrunk nflfastR EPA splits produce capped adjustments of -0.2 to the spread and +0.4 to the total. Surface is a supporting input, never a standalone pick signal.

TEAM HUBSFollow both teams beyond this matchup

Tennessee analytics · Baltimore analytics

RECENT HEAD-TO-HEADBAL leads 3–0 across the last 3 meetings

Average combined score: 35.3 · Current-home weighted margin: +9.4

DateFinalWinnerTotal
Oct 15, 2023BAL 24 – TEN 16BAL40
Aug 11, 2022TEN 10 – BAL 23BAL33
Jan 10, 2021BAL 20 – TEN 13BAL33

Capped model inputs: spread +0.7, total -0.7. Older meetings provide context and never operate as a standalone pick signal.

TRAVEL & REST ANALYSISRoad travel: TEN 595 mi / BAL 0 mi to BAL home venue; approximately 1 time zone from the away-team base. Model adjustment: spread 0.0 pts, total 0.0 pts.

Travel adjustments are capped inputs to the fair line. They do not replace team efficiency, injuries, player tendencies or market information.

Verified Performance

LINE LOCKED
Locked PickTEN +11.5
Locked Line+11.5
Game WinnerBAL
EdgeLine Result✓ EDGELINE PICK WON
Closing LineNot captured
CLVNot captured
Units+0.909

Locked automatically 10/4/2026, 10:02:35 AM CT. Final score: TEN 18 - BAL 24.

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Verified Performance History

PUBLIC RECORD
MatchupPickResultUnitsCLV
Green Bay @ Tampa BayOver 38.5LOSS-1.000—
Miami @ MinnesotaOver 38.5LOSS-1.000-38.5
Tennessee @ BaltimoreTEN +11.5WIN+0.909—
LA Chargers @ SeattleOver 42.5WIN+0.909-42.5
LA Rams @ PhiladelphiaPHI +3.5LOSS-1.000—
Arizona @ NY GiantsNYG +2.5WIN+0.909—
LA Chargers @ BuffaloLAC +7.5LOSS-1.000+0.5
Arizona @ San FranciscoARI +8.5WIN+0.909+1
CURRENT NFL MATCHUPSThis game is complete — continue with the current slate

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Pick receipt published: 10/4/2026, 3:17:20 PM CT

RELATED PUBLIC RESEARCHAudit the method behind this matchup

NFL model methodology · Free team gradings · Model performance study · Completed results

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For informational and entertainment purposes only. No wager is guaranteed.