EdgeLine NFL
PICK RECEIPT • ✓ EDGELINE PICK WON

Philadelphia @ Jacksonville Result & Pick Recap

This game is complete. This historical recap preserves EdgeLine's pregame recommendation, locked line, final score and graded result. It is not a current prediction.

OFFICIAL RECOMMENDATIONOwner-selected official pick: PHI +7.5. The original line is locked for grading; subsequent model updates do not replace this selection.

Selected by the owner and included in the official record.

Official PlayPHI +7.5
Bet TypeSPREAD
Model Edge+5
Cover probability66.8%Strong estimated advantage
Line Value—
Market Spread-7.5
Fair Spread-2.5
Market Total41.5
Fair Total49.5
Travel – Spread-0.1
Travel – Total-0.5
Surface – Spread0
Surface – Total0
INPUTS & TIMINGWhat this analysis used

Sportsbook market line, EdgeLine team ratings, injury and quarterback context, home field and matchup adjustments. The figures above are model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes.

Latest model snapshot: Oct 11, 9:20 AM EDT. Official pick locked: Oct 10, 10:21 PM EDT. Model version: 5.0.0.

Read the methodology · Download completed pick history

KEY PICK FACTORS

• Fair-line value: EdgeLine identifies a 5.0-point advantage versus the sportsbook line.

• Game location: PHI and JAX are playing at a neutral site, so no standard home-field advantage is applied.

• Injuries: Current availability, including quarterback impact, creates a 1.5-point adjustment toward JAX.

• Matchup: Recent player tendencies and offense-versus-defense fit contribute a 0.6-point adjustment.

Explore NFL Analytics · See Model Methodology

TEAM HUBSFollow both teams beyond this matchup

Philadelphia analytics · Jacksonville analytics

RECENT HEAD-TO-HEADPHI leads 2–0 across the last 2 meetings

Average combined score: 50.5 · Current-home weighted margin: -6.3

DateFinalWinnerTotal
Nov 3, 2024JAX 23 – PHI 28PHI51
Oct 2, 2022JAX 21 – PHI 29PHI50

Capped model inputs: spread -0.5, total +0.5. Older meetings provide context and never operate as a standalone pick signal.

TRAVEL & REST ANALYSISInternational neutral site: PHI 3,542 mi / JAX 4,262 mi to London; approximately 5 time zones from the away-team base. Model adjustment: spread -0.1 pts, total -0.5 pts.

Travel adjustments are capped inputs to the fair line. They do not replace team efficiency, injuries, player tendencies or market information.

Verified Performance

LINE LOCKED
Locked PickPHI +7.5
Locked Line+7.5
Game WinnerJAX
EdgeLine Result✓ EDGELINE PICK WON
Closing Line+8
CLV-0.5
Units+0.909

Locked by the owner 10/10/2026, 9:21:54 PM CT. Final score: PHI 17 - JAX 19.

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Verified Performance History

PUBLIC RECORD
MatchupPickResultUnitsCLV
Philadelphia @ JacksonvillePHI +7.5WIN+0.909-0.5
Miami @ MinnesotaOver 38.5LOSS-1.000-38.5
Green Bay @ Tampa BayOver 38.5LOSS-1.000—
Tennessee @ BaltimoreTEN +11.5WIN+0.909—
LA Rams @ PhiladelphiaPHI +3.5LOSS-1.000—
Arizona @ NY GiantsNYG +2.5WIN+0.909—
Atlanta @ New OrleansUnder 47.5LOSS-1.000PK
LA Chargers @ SeattleOver 42.5WIN+0.909-42.5
CURRENT NFL MATCHUPSThis game is complete — continue with the current slate

Denver @ LA Chargers prediction · Detroit @ Arizona prediction · San Francisco @ Seattle prediction · Baltimore @ Atlanta prediction · Buffalo @ LA Rams prediction

View all current NFL picks and predictions

Pick receipt published: 10/11/2026, 12:15:32 PM CT

RELATED PUBLIC RESEARCHAudit the method behind this matchup

NFL model methodology · Free team gradings · Model performance study · Completed results

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For informational and entertainment purposes only. No wager is guaranteed.