EdgeLine NFL
PICK RECEIPT • ✕ EDGELINE PICK LOST

Miami @ Minnesota Result & Pick Recap

This game is complete. This historical recap preserves EdgeLine's pregame recommendation, locked line, final score and graded result. It is not a current prediction.

OFFICIAL RECOMMENDATIONEdgeLine’s best available total is Over 38.5 because our model projects approximately 43.5 total points — 5.0 points above the locked recommendation line. The market has not provided a meaningful confirming move yet. The model edge is large, but EdgeLine is still waiting for enough additional confirmation to call it Strong.

Play means the model sees a meaningful betting edge, but the setup does not currently satisfy EdgeLine’s stricter Strong criteria.

Official PlayOver 38.5
Bet TypeTOTAL
Model Edge+5
Over probability64.9%Strong estimated advantage
Line Value—
Market Spread-10
Fair Spread-9
Market Total38.5
Fair Total43.5
Travel – Spread+0.3
Travel – Total0
Surface – Spread0
Surface – Total0
INPUTS & TIMINGWhat this analysis used

Sportsbook market line, EdgeLine team ratings, injury and quarterback context, home field and matchup adjustments. The figures above are model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes.

Latest model snapshot: Oct 4, 4:02 PM EDT. Official pick locked: Oct 4, 11:10 AM EDT. Model version: 4.5.1.

Read the methodology · Download completed pick history

KEY PICK FACTORS

• Fair-line value: EdgeLine identifies a 5.0-point advantage versus the sportsbook line.

• Home/away: MIN is home and MIA is away; the model includes a 1.7-point home-field adjustment.

• Injuries: Current availability, including quarterback impact, creates a 0.4-point adjustment toward MIN.

Explore NFL Analytics · See Model Methodology

TEAM HUBSFollow both teams beyond this matchup

Miami analytics · Minnesota analytics

RECENT HEAD-TO-HEADMIN leads 1–0 across the last 1 meeting

Average combined score: 40 · Current-home weighted margin: +8

DateFinalWinnerTotal
Oct 16, 2022MIN 24 – MIA 16MIN40

Displayed for context only; at least two meetings are required for a model adjustment. Older meetings provide context and never operate as a standalone pick signal.

TRAVEL & REST ANALYSISRoad travel: MIA 1,514 mi / MIN 0 mi to MIN home venue; approximately 1 time zone from the away-team base. Model adjustment: spread +0.3 pts, total 0.0 pts.

Travel adjustments are capped inputs to the fair line. They do not replace team efficiency, injuries, player tendencies or market information.

Verified Performance

LINE LOCKED
Locked PickOver 38.5
Locked Line38.5
Game WinnerMIN
EdgeLine Result✕ EDGELINE PICK LOST
Closing LineNot captured
CLV-38.5
Units-1.000

Locked automatically 10/4/2026, 10:10:44 AM CT. Final score: MIA 10 - MIN 15.

Shareable Pick Receipt

1200 × 630

Download the verified result graphic for social media, forums or email.

Verified Performance History

PUBLIC RECORD
MatchupPickResultUnitsCLV
Miami @ MinnesotaOver 38.5LOSS-1.000-38.5
Green Bay @ Tampa BayOver 38.5LOSS-1.000—
Tennessee @ BaltimoreTEN +11.5WIN+0.909—
LA Chargers @ SeattleOver 42.5WIN+0.909-42.5
LA Rams @ PhiladelphiaPHI +3.5LOSS-1.000—
Arizona @ NY GiantsNYG +2.5WIN+0.909—
LA Chargers @ BuffaloLAC +7.5LOSS-1.000+0.5
Arizona @ San FranciscoARI +8.5WIN+0.909+1
CURRENT NFL MATCHUPSThis game is complete — continue with the current slate

Atlanta @ New Orleans prediction

View all current NFL picks and predictions

Pick receipt published: 10/4/2026, 6:46:31 PM CT

RELATED PUBLIC RESEARCHAudit the method behind this matchup

NFL model methodology · Free team gradings · Model performance study · Completed results

View Live BoardVerified Results
Share this receipt:

For informational and entertainment purposes only. No wager is guaranteed.