EdgeLine NFL
PICK RECEIPT • ✕ EDGELINE PICK LOST

LA Rams @ Philadelphia Result & Pick Recap

This game is complete. This historical recap preserves EdgeLine's pregame recommendation, locked line, final score and graded result. It is not a current prediction.

OFFICIAL RECOMMENDATIONEdgeLine’s best available spread is PHI +3.5 because our fair-line model sees approximately a 5.0-point advantage versus the current sportsbook spread. However, the market has moved 3.5 points away from EdgeLine's position, so confidence is reduced. The model edge is large, but adverse market movement keeps the recommendation at Play rather than Strong.

Play means the model sees a meaningful betting edge, but the setup does not currently satisfy EdgeLine’s stricter Strong criteria.

Official PlayPHI +3.5
Bet TypeSPREAD
Model Edge+5
Cover probability66.8%Strong estimated advantage
Line Value-3.5
Market Spread+3.5
Fair Spread-1.5
Market Total42.5
Fair Total47
Travel – Spread+0.5
Travel – Total0
Surface – Spread+0.2
Surface – Total-0.5
INPUTS & TIMINGWhat this analysis used

Sportsbook market line, EdgeLine team ratings, injury and quarterback context, home field and matchup adjustments. The figures above are model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes.

Latest model snapshot: Oct 4, 12:58 PM EDT. Official pick locked: Oct 3, 1:07 PM EDT. Model version: 4.5.1.

Read the methodology · Download completed pick history

KEY PICK FACTORS

• Fair-line value: EdgeLine identifies a 5.0-point advantage versus the sportsbook line.

• Home/away: PHI is home and LAR is away; the model includes a 1.7-point home-field adjustment.

• Injuries: Current availability, including quarterback impact, creates a 1.3-point adjustment toward LAR.

• Playing surface: Recent grass/turf performance splits adjust this spread by +0.2 points.

Explore NFL Analytics · See Model Methodology

PLAYING SURFACENatural grass · LAR 7 games · PHI 11 games

Sample-shrunk nflfastR EPA splits produce capped adjustments of +0.2 to the spread and -0.5 to the total. Surface is a supporting input, never a standalone pick signal.

TEAM HUBSFollow both teams beyond this matchup

LA Rams analytics · Philadelphia analytics

RECENT HEAD-TO-HEADPHI leads 4–0 across the last 4 meetings

Average combined score: 50.8 · Current-home weighted margin: +9.3

DateFinalWinnerTotal
Sep 21, 2025LAR 26 – PHI 33PHI59
Jan 19, 2025LAR 22 – PHI 28PHI50
Nov 25, 2024PHI 37 – LAR 20PHI57
Oct 8, 2023PHI 23 – LAR 14PHI37

Capped model inputs: spread +0.7, total +0.5. Older meetings provide context and never operate as a standalone pick signal.

TRAVEL & REST ANALYSISRoad travel: LAR 2,388 mi / PHI 0 mi to PHI home venue; approximately 3 time zones from the away-team base. Model adjustment: spread +0.5 pts, total 0.0 pts.

Travel adjustments are capped inputs to the fair line. They do not replace team efficiency, injuries, player tendencies or market information.

Verified Performance

LINE LOCKED
Locked PickPHI +3.5
Locked Line+3.5
Game WinnerLAR
EdgeLine Result✕ EDGELINE PICK LOST
Closing LineNot captured
CLVNot captured
Units-1.000

Locked automatically 10/3/2026, 12:07:22 PM CT. Final score: LAR 24 - PHI 20.

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Verified Performance History

PUBLIC RECORD
MatchupPickResultUnitsCLV
Miami @ MinnesotaOver 38.5LOSS-1.000-38.5
Green Bay @ Tampa BayOver 38.5LOSS-1.000—
Tennessee @ BaltimoreTEN +11.5WIN+0.909—
LA Chargers @ SeattleOver 42.5WIN+0.909-42.5
Arizona @ NY GiantsNYG +2.5WIN+0.909—
LA Rams @ PhiladelphiaPHI +3.5LOSS-1.000—
LA Chargers @ BuffaloLAC +7.5LOSS-1.000+0.5
Arizona @ San FranciscoARI +8.5WIN+0.909+1
CURRENT NFL MATCHUPSThis game is complete — continue with the current slate

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Pick receipt published: 10/4/2026, 3:17:20 PM CT

RELATED PUBLIC RESEARCHAudit the method behind this matchup

NFL model methodology · Free team gradings · Model performance study · Completed results

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For informational and entertainment purposes only. No wager is guaranteed.