EdgeLine NFL
PICK RECEIPT • ✕ EDGELINE PICK LOST

Green Bay @ Tampa Bay Result & Pick Recap

This game is complete. This historical recap preserves EdgeLine's pregame recommendation, locked line, final score and graded result. It is not a current prediction.

OFFICIAL RECOMMENDATIONEdgeLine’s best available total is Over 38.5 because our model projects approximately 44.5 total points — 6.0 points above the locked recommendation line. The market has not provided a meaningful confirming move yet. The model edge is large, but EdgeLine is still waiting for enough additional confirmation to call it Strong.

Play means the model sees a meaningful betting edge, but the setup does not currently satisfy EdgeLine’s stricter Strong criteria.

Official PlayOver 38.5
Bet TypeTOTAL
Model Edge+6
Over probability67.1%Strong estimated advantage
Line Value—
Market Spread+3
Fair Spread+1.5
Market Total38.5
Fair Total44.5
Travel – Spread+0.3
Travel – Total0
Surface – Spread0
Surface – Total0
INPUTS & TIMINGWhat this analysis used

Sportsbook market line, EdgeLine team ratings, injury and quarterback context, home field and matchup adjustments. The figures above are model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes.

Latest model snapshot: Oct 4, 12:58 PM EDT. Official pick locked: Oct 4, 11:10 AM EDT. Model version: 4.5.1.

Read the methodology · Download completed pick history

KEY PICK FACTORS

• Fair-line value: EdgeLine identifies a 6.0-point advantage versus the sportsbook line.

• Home/away: TB is home and GB is away; the model includes a 1.7-point home-field adjustment.

• Injuries: Current availability, including quarterback impact, creates a 2.8-point adjustment toward GB.

Explore NFL Analytics · See Model Methodology

TEAM HUBSFollow both teams beyond this matchup

Green Bay analytics · Tampa Bay analytics

RECENT HEAD-TO-HEADTB leads 2–1 across the last 3 meetings

Average combined score: 45.7 · Current-home weighted margin: +6.4

DateFinalWinnerTotal
Dec 17, 2023TB 34 – GB 20TB54
Sep 25, 2022GB 14 – TB 12GB26
Jan 24, 2021TB 31 – GB 26TB57

Capped model inputs: spread +0.5, total +0.1. Older meetings provide context and never operate as a standalone pick signal.

TRAVEL & REST ANALYSISRoad travel: GB 1,182 mi / TB 0 mi to TB home venue; approximately 0 time zones from the away-team base. Model adjustment: spread +0.3 pts, total 0.0 pts.

Travel adjustments are capped inputs to the fair line. They do not replace team efficiency, injuries, player tendencies or market information.

Verified Performance

LINE LOCKED
Locked PickOver 38.5
Locked Line38.5
Game WinnerGB
EdgeLine Result✕ EDGELINE PICK LOST
Closing LineNot captured
CLVNot captured
Units-1.000

Locked automatically 10/4/2026, 10:10:44 AM CT. Final score: GB 17 - TB 14.

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Verified Performance History

PUBLIC RECORD
MatchupPickResultUnitsCLV
Miami @ MinnesotaOver 38.5LOSS-1.000-38.5
Green Bay @ Tampa BayOver 38.5LOSS-1.000—
Tennessee @ BaltimoreTEN +11.5WIN+0.909—
LA Rams @ PhiladelphiaPHI +3.5LOSS-1.000—
Arizona @ NY GiantsNYG +2.5WIN+0.909—
LA Chargers @ SeattleOver 42.5WIN+0.909-42.5
LA Chargers @ BuffaloLAC +7.5LOSS-1.000+0.5
Arizona @ San FranciscoARI +8.5WIN+0.909+1
CURRENT NFL MATCHUPSThis game is complete — continue with the current slate

Atlanta @ New Orleans prediction

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Pick receipt published: 10/4/2026, 3:02:31 PM CT

RELATED PUBLIC RESEARCHAudit the method behind this matchup

NFL model methodology · Free team gradings · Model performance study · Completed results

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For informational and entertainment purposes only. No wager is guaranteed.