NFL referee analytics
Referee crew effects enter new predictions beginning with Week 8 of 2026. Adjustments are capped at 0.50 spread points and 0.75 total points, and require a confirmed assignment. Historical testing has not shown an accuracy gain.
Week 9 assignments
Assignments are shown only when the game feed names the referee. Missing information is not treated as an average crew.
| Matchup | Crew chief | Profile games | Penalty plays / 100 | Offensive holding / 100 | Defensive holding + PI / 100 | Penalty first downs / 100 | Home minus away flags / 100 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JAX@BAL | Awaiting confirmed assignment | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| CIN@ATL | Awaiting confirmed assignment | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| NYJ@KC | Awaiting confirmed assignment | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| DAL@IND | Awaiting confirmed assignment | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| NYG@PHI | Awaiting confirmed assignment | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| DET@MIA | Awaiting confirmed assignment | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| CLE@NO | Awaiting confirmed assignment | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| LAR@WAS | Awaiting confirmed assignment | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| DEN@CAR | Awaiting confirmed assignment | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| HOU@LAC | Awaiting confirmed assignment | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| GB@NE | Awaiting confirmed assignment | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| LV@SF | Awaiting confirmed assignment | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| ARI@SEA | Awaiting confirmed assignment | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| TB@CHI | Awaiting confirmed assignment | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| BUF@MIN | Awaiting confirmed assignment | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable | Unavailable |
Historical test
Chronological test of crew features beyond market lines and team penalty tendencies. This is a retrospective market benchmark, not proof of improvement over EdgeLine.
| 2025 holdout | Games | Baseline average error | With referee features |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | 264 | 9.6852 | 9.6965 |
| Total | 264 | 10.433 | 10.4481 |
Lower error is better. These results do not establish improved prediction accuracy from referee features.
Forward tracking
11 pregame receipts · 11 completed games.
The capped referee component is owner-enabled. Its impact is recorded alongside forecasts for continued evaluation; existing locked picks remain unchanged.
How to read these numbers
Rates count accepted, recorded primary penalty plays per 100 scrimmage opportunities, including qualifying no-play penalties. Multi-flag plays may contain additional penalties not identified in the primary penalty fields. Profiles use up to three seasons and shrink small samples toward the league average.
- Crew chief is a proxy for the crew; individual flag throwers and crew substitutions are not identified.
- Historical assignments are retrospective; their pregame publication time is unknown.
- Historical baseline uses closing market lines plus team penalty controls, not reconstructed EdgeLine forecasts.
- Fixed 2021–2023 training, 2024 tuning and 2025 holdout. 2026 is monitoring only.
- Accepted primary penalty plays can undercount multiple-flag plays; declined and offsetting descriptions are excluded conservatively.
- Results become eligible 12 hours after kickoff; this delay approximates result availability, not source publication time.
- Referee coefficients are enabled by explicit owner direction from Week 8 of 2026, with caps; historical results have not demonstrated an accuracy gain.
Sources: nflverse play-by-play, nflverse game schedules and ESPN game summaries. Profile refresh: 2026-10-26T18:50:01.979371+00:00.