2026 NFL • WEEK 1

Week 1 model analysis

A permanent, citation-ready snapshot of EdgeLine fair lines compared with the sportsbook market. Model outputs are informational, not guarantees.

16matchups

14Play / Strong

Sep 7, 2026, 2:29 PMupdated CT

Weekly model board

Denver @ Kansas City

Strong

Over 43.5

Market spread: -2.5
Fair spread: -4
Market total: +43.5
Fair total: +52.5
Model edge: +9 pts
Line value: +0.5 pts

Snapshot Sep 7, 2026, 2:27 PM

Buffalo @ Houston

Play

Over 44.5

Market spread: +1.5
Fair spread: 0
Market total: +44.5
Fair total: +52.5
Model edge: +8 pts
Line value: 0 pts

Snapshot Sep 7, 2026, 2:27 PM

Washington @ Philadelphia

Play

Over 44.5

Market spread: -4.5
Fair spread: -5
Market total: +44.5
Fair total: +51.5
Model edge: +7 pts
Line value: -2.5 pts

Snapshot Sep 7, 2026, 2:27 PM

Cleveland @ Jacksonville

Play

CLE +8.5

Market spread: -8.5
Fair spread: -4
Market total: +40.5
Fair total: +41
Model edge: +4.5 pts
Line value: -1 pts

Snapshot Sep 7, 2026, 2:27 PM

Green Bay @ Minnesota

Strong

Over 46

Market spread: -1.5
Fair spread: -2
Market total: +46
Fair total: +50
Model edge: +4 pts
Line value: +0.5 pts

Snapshot Sep 7, 2026, 2:27 PM

Miami @ Las Vegas

Play

MIA +3.5

Market spread: -3.5
Fair spread: +0.5
Market total: +40.5
Fair total: +43
Model edge: +4 pts
Line value: -0.5 pts

Snapshot Sep 7, 2026, 2:27 PM

Atlanta @ Pittsburgh

Play

Over 42

Market spread: -3.5
Fair spread: -3.5
Market total: +42
Fair total: +45.5
Model edge: +3.5 pts
Line value: +0.5 pts

Snapshot Sep 7, 2026, 2:27 PM

Chicago @ Carolina

Play

Under 47.5

Market spread: +2.5
Fair spread: +1.5
Market total: +47.5
Fair total: +44
Model edge: +3.5 pts
Line value: -2 pts

Snapshot Sep 7, 2026, 2:27 PM

NY Jets @ Tennessee

Play

Over 39.5

Market spread: -1.5
Fair spread: -3
Market total: +39.5
Fair total: +43
Model edge: +3.5 pts
Line value: +1 pts

Snapshot Sep 7, 2026, 2:27 PM

Dallas @ NY Giants

Play

NYG +3

Market spread: +3
Fair spread: -0.5
Market total: +48.5
Fair total: +45
Model edge: +3.5 pts
Line value: -0.5 pts

Snapshot Sep 7, 2026, 2:27 PM

New England @ Seattle

Play

Over 44.5

Market spread: -3.5
Fair spread: -3.5
Market total: +44.5
Fair total: +48
Model edge: +3.5 pts
Line value: -0.5 pts

Snapshot Sep 7, 2026, 2:27 PM

New Orleans @ Detroit

Play

Under 50

Market spread: -7
Fair spread: -9
Market total: +50
Fair total: +47.5
Model edge: +2.5 pts
Line value: -0.5 pts

Snapshot Sep 7, 2026, 2:27 PM

Arizona @ LA Chargers

Play

ARI +10

Market spread: -10
Fair spread: -7.5
Market total: +47.5
Fair total: +47
Model edge: +2.5 pts
Line value: +0.5 pts

Snapshot Sep 7, 2026, 2:27 PM

Baltimore @ Indianapolis

Play

Over 47.5

Market spread: +3.5
Fair spread: +3.5
Market total: +47.5
Fair total: +50
Model edge: +2.5 pts
Line value: -2 pts

Snapshot Sep 7, 2026, 2:27 PM

San Francisco @ LA Rams

Lean

Over 48.5

Market spread: -3.5
Fair spread: -3.5
Market total: +48.5
Fair total: +50.5
Model edge: +2 pts
Line value: 0 pts

Snapshot Sep 7, 2026, 2:27 PM

Tampa Bay @ Cincinnati

Lean

Under 50.5

Market spread: -3.5
Fair spread: -2
Market total: +50.5
Fair total: +48.5
Model edge: +2 pts
Line value: +1 pts

Snapshot Sep 7, 2026, 2:27 PM

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