John Castaneda vs Alatengheili
75.7%John Castaneda
24.3%Alatengheili
WINNER PROBABILITY
John Castaneda — 75.7%
High probability.
MARKET COMPARISON
Model-market difference: 4.1 points.
Difference between the model probability and the sportsbook's implied probability.
Matchup signals
- John Castaneda owns the stronger striking differential.
- John Castaneda has the stronger verified professional win rate (70% vs 59%).
Matchup analytics
MetricJohn CastanedaAlatengheili
Model win probabilityEdgeLine matchup estimate75.7%24.3%
Pro recordExperience and proven results21-8-117-10-2
Professional fightsVerified career sample size3029
Career win rateWins divided by verified professional fights70%59%
HeightTale of the tape5' 6"5' 5"
ReachDistance-management potential71 in66 in
StancePrimary fighting stanceSwitchOrthodox
Significant strikes landed/minSustained striking output5.02.8
Significant strikes absorbed/minLower is better5.15.1
Striking differentialOutput minus strikes absorbed-0.1-2.3
Striking accuracyEfficiency of landed offense51%33%
Striking defenseShare of opponent strikes avoided53%57%
Takedowns / 15 minWrestling volume1.51.7
Takedown defenseAbility to keep the fight standing75%75%
Submission attempts / 15 minSubmission threat0.1—
How to read the probability
The percentage is EdgeLine's estimated chance that the projected winner wins: 70%+ High probability, 58–69.9% Moderate probability, 54–57.9% Narrow advantage, and below 54% Toss-up.
When verified UFC statistics are incomplete, the probability is calibrated toward the no-vig sportsbook market instead of being artificially compressed toward 50%. As verified data coverage improves, the independent EdgeLine matchup model receives more weight. The market comparison shows the remaining difference in percentage points.
Medical and card-change status is unverified while UFCalendar is rate-limited; projections display, but plays will not be locked.