Alexandre Pantoja vs Joshua Van
40.4%Alexandre Pantoja
59.6%Joshua Van
MODEL DECISION
Lean
Projected side: Joshua Van · 5.2 point market edge
Evidence supporting Joshua Van
- Joshua Van owns the stronger striking differential.
- Alexandre Pantoja brings more takedown volume.
- Alexandre Pantoja creates more submission threats.
Matchup analytics
MetricAlexandre PantojaJoshua Van
Pro recordExperience and proven results30-617-2
AgeAge on the event date3624
HeightTale of the tape5' 5"5' 5"
ReachDistance-management potential68 in65 in
StancePrimary fighting stanceOrthodoxOrthodox
Significant strikes landed/minSustained striking output4.48.4
Striking differentialOutput minus strikes absorbed+4.4+8.4
Striking accuracyEfficiency of landed offense55%62%
Takedowns / 15 minWrestling volume2.80.8
Submission attempts / 15 minSubmission threat1.00.2
How to read this pick
The win probability is the model's matchup estimate. A Model only label means no matching sportsbook price is available, so this is not yet a value bet. Review means a verified card change, withdrawal, replacement or medical update must be cleared before the projection can become a locked play.
EdgeLine does not convert incomplete statistics into certainty. Missing metrics are shown as “—”, and unsupported probabilities are withheld.
Medical and card-change status is unverified while UFCalendar is rate-limited; projections display, but plays will not be locked.